Singapore analysts cut forecasts for 2009 economic growth _ and now expect a deeper recession _ as the global slowdown hurts demand for the city-state's exports.
The country's gross domestic product will likely shrink 6.5 percent this year, according to the median forecast of 19 economists in a quarterly survey that the central bank released Wednesday.
In the previous survey in March, analysts had expected the economy to contract 4.9 percent this year.
But they boosted their forecast for 2010 growth to a 4.2 percent expansion from 3.3 percent.
Analysts foresee manufacturing leading this year's decline by falling 14 percent, while financial services drop 4.1 percent and wholesale and retail trade slide 11 percent.
Construction, buoyed by a $13 billion government stimulus package announced in January, is the only sector analysts expect to grow this year, up 16 percent.
Analysts said the economy will likely shrink 7.7 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, more than their 6.9 percent forecast in March, said the central bank, known as the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
The analysts expect the economy to contract 6.6 percent in the third quarter and 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter.
Non-oil exports, which account for about 60 percent of the Singapore's GDP, plummeted 26 percent in the first quarter as demand from the U.S, Europe and Japan dried up. Analysts expect non-oil exports to fall 14.5 percent this year.
The economy fell a seasonally adjusted, annualized 14.6 percent in the first quarter from the previous quarter and slid 10.1 percent from a year earlier. The government expects the economy to contract between 6 percent and 9 percent this year.
Prices will likely fall 0.5 percent this year compared to a forecast of an increase of 0.2 percent in March, the survey showed. The inflation rate was 6.5 percent last year.
The unemployment rate will probably jump to 4.2 percent this year from 2.6 percent, according to the analyst survey.
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